US 2Q 2011 GDP Report
The BEA took an axe to their previous GDP estimates. Previously, the BEA estimated average annualized GDP growth over the 4 year period 2007-2010 to be less than +0.1%. Today, they slashed that growth...
View ArticleWeekly Short Economic Stories
Yesterday saw the August consumer confidence report from The Conference Board. Ouch! It dropped to the lowest level since April 2009. Unless there’s a massive disconnect, we’re likely to see a very...
View ArticleWeekly Short Economic Stories
Last week: the US stock market was plumbing 2011 lows and flirting with a bear market entry point (20% loss) — where most of the rest of the world’s stock markets already are (we were re-testing our...
View ArticleShort Economic Stories: US
It is remarkable how October 2011 resembles October & November 2008. Consumer sentiment, retail sales, GDP, ECRI WLI, Federal Reserve data — all look like they did immediately prior to December...
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Weekly Short Economic Stories
ECRI ‘s WLI indicator dropped to -10.1 two weeks ago, and -10.0 last week. The WLI fell this low in February 2008 — 3 months into the Great Recession. The odds are building that January 2012 will...
View ArticleShort Economic Stories: US
Consumer sentiment rose to the highest it has been in 5 months. Last week saw consumer sentiment rise to 64.2. This is a nice bounce from the 55.7 in August. But consumer sentiment is considerably...
View ArticleShort Economic Stories: US
The latest consumer confidence and small business confidence readings continue a steady increase since summer. The latest readings have risen almost all the way to the average level seen in...
View ArticleShort Economic Stories Jan 21 2012
Big Picture: Warning: The mini greedometer (tactical risk indicator) is displaying readings previously only seen when the S&P500 was within 5% of a secular (long term) top. The greedometer...
View ArticleGreedometer Newsletter summary: August 29 2012
The Bank of England released a report regarding its quantitative easing efforts. In summary, it says the top 5% of households (measured by wealth) benefitted heavily from QE, but it suggests the rest...
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Personal income is dropping to pre-recession level
Q4 personal income dropped very nearly to zero. Consumers -in typical fashion- kept spending though. Based on the data since WWII, the U.S. economy is probably going to fall into recession at some...
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